Two forms of hope
Hope for a negotiated peace and hope for defeating an opponent concern different possible futures. The paper examines these forms of hope separately, asking how each is associated with willingness to compromise, support for extreme war policies, and violent intentions.
The research program
The first two studies examined associations among Israeli Jewish and Pakistani participants. Study 3 examined profiles of hope in a representative Israeli Jewish sample, identifying people who hoped for peace, victory, or both. These profiles show why the two forms of hope should not be treated as opposite ends of a single scale.
Study 4: 2021 and October 2023
Study 4 followed 129 Israeli Jewish panel participants from a baseline survey in 2021 to the third week of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war, after the October 7 attacks. Hope for victory, support for extreme war policies, and violent intentions increased, while hope for peace decreased. The interactive mean-score view reproduces the adjusted means in Figure 3. It compares the same panel across two waves, not two independent samples.
Correlations at the two waves
The explorer also reproduces the within-wave correlations in Table 7. At the 2023 follow-up, hope for peace correlated negatively with support for extreme war policies (r = −.60) and violent intentions (r = −.50), while hope for victory correlated positively with these outcomes (r = .52 and .30, respectively). Visitors can compare both waves and both forms of hope. The display does not test whether the correlations differ significantly across time.
Longitudinal analysis and interpretation
The paper’s bivariate latent change score models address a separate question: whether changes in hope for victory were associated with parallel changes in support for extreme war policies and violent intentions. The findings supported such associations. Neither a two-wave mean comparison nor an association between changes, however, establishes that changing hope would cause a change in these attitudes. The original paper provides the model specifications and estimates.